· Analysis updated 00:03 UTC
RB Leipzig vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 2.00 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives FC Ingolstadt 04 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Ingolstadt 04 win
57.0% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Ingolstadt 04 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 22% / 22% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for RB Leipzig and 2.00 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–18.6%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
RB Leipzig
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Como · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen · 1-3 (L)
FC Ingolstadt 04
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Ingolstadt 04 win, at 57.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.