Red Bull Arena · Analysis updated 07:44 UTC
RB Leipzig W vs 1899 Hoffenheim W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for RB Leipzig W and 1.78 for 1899 Hoffenheim W, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives RB Leipzig W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
RB Leipzig W win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
1899 Hoffenheim W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
RB Leipzig W
- 2026-10-23T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Munich W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Freiburg W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-3 (L)
1899 Hoffenheim W
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Nürnberg W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Greuther Furth W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt W · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-12-14T17:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 2-3 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2025-04-13T16:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 2-5 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-11-03T13:00:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 3-1 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2024-05-10T16:30:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 3-0 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2023-12-17T13:00:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim W (Frauen Bundesliga)
- 2023-11-26T12:00:00.000Z · RB Leipzig W 0-3 1899 Hoffenheim W (DFB Pokal - Women)
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Union Berlin W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | SC Freiburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 10 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -23 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig W win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.