RB Leipzig W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for RB Leipzig W and 1.29 for SC Freiburg W, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives RB Leipzig W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

RB Leipzig W win

48.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

RB Leipzig W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
SC Freiburg W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RB Leipzig W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 23% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for RB Leipzig W and 1.29 for SC Freiburg W, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

RB Leipzig W win48%

Draw23%

SC Freiburg W win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.8%
2–19.5%
1–08.4%
2–07.4%
1–26.9%

Recent form

RB Leipzig W

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg W · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-1 (D)

SC Freiburg W

2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin W · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGS Essen W · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg W · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carl Zeiss Jena W · 5-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Frauen Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich W	8	8	0	0	22	24
2	VfL Wolfsburg W	8	7	0	1	18	21
3	Eintracht Frankfurt W	8	5	2	1	8	17
4	Bayer Leverkusen W	7	4	1	2	3	13
5	FC Koln W	8	4	0	4	1	12
6	Werder Bremen W	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	RB Leipzig W	8	3	1	4	0	10
8	SC Freiburg W	7	3	1	3	-2	10
9	Union Berlin W	7	3	0	4	-2	9
10	Stuttgart W	8	2	2	4	-12	8
11	1899 Hoffenheim W	6	2	0	4	-3	6
12	Hamburger SV W	7	1	2	4	-1	5
13	Nürnberg W	7	0	2	5	-13	2
14	Mainz 05 W	7	0	0	7	-21	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is RB Leipzig W win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.