Red Bull Arena · Analysis updated 12:57 UTC
RB Leipzig W vs VfL Wolfsburg W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for RB Leipzig W and 2.47 for VfL Wolfsburg W, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives VfL Wolfsburg W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
VfL Wolfsburg W win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
RB Leipzig W home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfL Wolfsburg W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 19% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for RB Leipzig W and 2.47 for VfL Wolfsburg W, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–37.2%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.4%
- 0–26.1%
Recent form
RB Leipzig W
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Blau-Gelb Marburg W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Berlin W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nürnberg W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV W · 1-1 (D)
VfL Wolfsburg W
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Koln W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Mainz 05 W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sturm Graz W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Sand W · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Frauen Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich W | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 24 |
| 2 | VfL Wolfsburg W | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 21 |
| 3 | Eintracht Frankfurt W | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen W | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | FC Koln W | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Werder Bremen W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | SC Freiburg W | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Union Berlin W | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Stuttgart W | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 8 |
| 11 | 1899 Hoffenheim W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV W | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Nürnberg W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -13 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz 05 W | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -21 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfL Wolfsburg W win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.