Select Car Leasing Stadium · Referee A. Farmer · Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Reading U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Reading U21 and 1.67 for Derby County U21, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Reading U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.3% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Reading U21 home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derby County U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Reading U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 23% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Reading U21 and 1.67 for Derby County U21, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.1%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.8%
Recent form
Reading U21
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Blackburn Rovers U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-07T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley U21 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby County U21 · 1-3 (L)
Derby County U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Burnley U21 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur U21 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gateshead · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs West Bromwich Albion U21 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Reading U21 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League 2 Division One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham Hotspur U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Southampton U21 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Manchester United U21 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Sunderland U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | AFC Bournemouth U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Liverpool U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Fulham U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Leeds United U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Reading U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Norwich City U21 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Brentford U21 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Everton U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 | West Ham United U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa U21 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 17 | Stoke City U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 19 | Brighton U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | Derby County U21 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Manchester City U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | Burnley U21 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 23 | Arsenal U21 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 24 | Blackburn Rovers U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 25 | Ipswich Town U21 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 26 | Birmingham City U21 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 | Middlesbrough U21 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 28 | West Bromwich Albion U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 29 | Leicester City U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 30 | Newcastle United U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 0 |
| 31 | Wolves U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.