· Analysis updated 05:43 UTC
Real Apodaca vs Inter Playa del Carmen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Real Apodaca and 0.88 for Inter Playa del Carmen, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Real Apodaca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Apodaca win
52.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Apodaca home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Inter Playa del Carmen away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Apodaca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 26% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Real Apodaca and 0.88 for Inter Playa del Carmen, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.8%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–010.5%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Real Apodaca
- 2026-10-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Vaqueros Reynosa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs La Tribu de Cd. Juarez · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Acatlan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Saltillo · 2-3 (L)
Inter Playa del Carmen
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Irapuato · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Jaguares de Chiapas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportiva Venados · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Apodaca win, at 52.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.