· Analysis updated 20:03 UTC
Real Aranjuez vs Deportivo Alavés III Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Real Aranjuez and 2.14 for Deportivo Alavés III, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Deportivo Alavés III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Alavés III win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Aranjuez home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés III away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Alavés III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 19% / 20% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Real Aranjuez and 2.14 for Deportivo Alavés III, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
39%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.9%
- 1–19.2%
- 0–28.9%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–37.0%
Recent form
Real Aranjuez
- 2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés III · 1-6 (L)
- 2023-04-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Madrid 2021 FP · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-16T09:30:00.000Z · H vs RSC Internacional · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trival Valderas · 1-5 (L)
- 2023-04-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-6 (L)
Deportivo Alavés III
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sodupe · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Touring · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Aurrerá Vitoria · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Amurrio Club · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Eibar III · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Alavés III win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.