Estadio El Deleite · Referee Jorge González · Analysis updated 09:13 UTC
Real Aranjuez vs RSD Alcalá Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Real Aranjuez and 1.87 for RSD Alcalá, a combined total of 3.17. That distribution gives RSD Alcalá the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
RSD Alcalá win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Aranjuez home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
RSD Alcalá away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates RSD Alcalá to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 23% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Real Aranjuez and 1.87 for RSD Alcalá, a combined 3.17 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–16.6%
Recent form
Real Aranjuez
- 2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Alavés III · 1-6 (L)
- 2023-04-23T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Madrid 2021 FP · 0-1 (L)
- 2023-04-16T09:30:00.000Z · H vs RSC Internacional · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-04-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Trival Valderas · 1-5 (L)
- 2023-04-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Rayo Vallecano II · 0-6 (L)
RSD Alcalá
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Salamanca UDS · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CF Talavera · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Móstoles | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 2 | Las Rozas | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Colonia Moscardó | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 14 |
| 5 | Galapagar | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Cala Pozuelo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Unión Adarve | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Trival Valderas | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Leganés II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Torrejón | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Real Aranjuez | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Parla Escuela | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | SS Reyes II | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Alcobendas Sport | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is RSD Alcalá win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.