Estadio Municipal Adolfo Suárez · Analysis updated 07:23 UTC
Real Ávila vs Gimnástica Segoviana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Real Ávila and 1.00 for Gimnástica Segoviana, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Real Ávila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Ávila win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Ávila home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnástica Segoviana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Real Ávila
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 1-0 (W)
Gimnástica Segoviana
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Valladolid II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guadalajara · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T15:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 2-1 Gimnástica Segoviana (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 0-1 Gimnástica Segoviana (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-07-29T09:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 2-1 Gimnástica Segoviana (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-08-20T10:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 1-2 Gimnástica Segoviana (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-07-31T00:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 1-2 Gimnástica Segoviana (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2021-01-30T16:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 1-3 Gimnástica Segoviana (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2020-11-08T16:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 0-1 Gimnástica Segoviana (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
- 2019-12-29T16:00:00.000Z · Real Ávila 2-1 Gimnástica Segoviana (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Deportivo Alavés II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Bergantiños | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Eibar II | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Compostela | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Amorebieta | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Ourense CF | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Portugalete | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Gernika | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 11 | Basconia | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Coruxo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Atlético Astorga | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Arosa | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Marino de Luanco | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Llanera | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Ávila win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.