· Analysis updated 07:06 UTC
Real Avilés vs Sporting Gijón II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Real Avilés and 1.38 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Sporting Gijón II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sporting Gijón II win
47.3% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Avilés home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting Gijón II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sporting Gijón II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 25% / 28% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Real Avilés and 1.38 for Sporting Gijón II, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.8%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–09.3%
Recent form
Real Avilés
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Lugo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Barakaldo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · A vs CD Coria · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club II · 1-2 (L)
Sporting Gijón II
- 2026-10-24T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Siero · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Colunga · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Caudal · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Langreo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Avilés Stadium · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sporting Gijón II win, at 47.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.