· Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Réal Bamako vs US Bougouba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.71 expected goals for Réal Bamako and 0.48 for US Bougouba, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Réal Bamako the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Réal Bamako win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
1.71 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
US Bougouba away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Réal Bamako to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 23% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.71 goals for Réal Bamako and 0.48 for US Bougouba, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 31%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–019.2%
- 2–016.4%
- 0–011.3%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–19.2%
Recent form
Réal Bamako
US Bougouba
- 2026-06-13T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Réal Bamako · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-06-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Diarra · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-06-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Binga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bakaridjan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs USFAS Bamako · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Première Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Djoliba | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 59 |
| 2 | Stade Malien Bamako | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 50 |
| 3 | Réal Bamako | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 49 |
| 4 | Diarra | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 5 | Binga | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 43 |
| 6 | USFAS Bamako | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 42 |
| 7 | ASKO | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | -3 | 33 |
| 8 | US Bougouba | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -13 | 31 |
| 9 | Derby Academie | 26 | 5 | 14 | 7 | -3 | 29 |
| 10 | Bakaridjan | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | -7 | 27 |
| 11 | Afrique Football Élite | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | -15 | 27 |
| 12 | Onze Créateurs | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | -8 | 26 |
| 13 | Mali Coura | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 20 |
| 14 | Bougouni | 26 | 4 | 4 | 18 | -31 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Réal Bamako win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 31% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.