· Analysis updated 05:04 UTC
Real Betis vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.08 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Real Betis win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Betis home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AD Ceuta FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Betis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Real Betis and 1.08 for AD Ceuta FC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Real Betis
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Feyenoord · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Barcelona · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
AD Ceuta FC
- 2026-10-10T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Castellón · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Valladolid · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Burgos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.