· Analysis updated 20:45 UTC
Real Betis vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Real Betis and 3.00 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 4.90. That distribution gives Bournemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bournemouth win
60.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Betis home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bournemouth away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bournemouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 23% / 17% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Real Betis and 3.00 for Bournemouth, a combined 4.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–26.4%
- 1–36.4%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–36.0%
- 1–44.8%
Recent form
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T18:30:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-2 Bournemouth (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bournemouth win, at 60.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 81% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.