Estadio de La Cartuja · Referee J. Sanchez · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
Real Betis vs Getafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.63 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Betis win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Betis home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Getafe away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.1%
- 2–013.8%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 62.5% vs market 52.6%, edge +9.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 52.6% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +9.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.4% | 85.8% | 1.17 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.3% | 24.4% | 4.10 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.2% | 14.2% | 7.04 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.50 | 61.5% | 61.4% | 1.63 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.45 | 38.7% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.9% | 75.6% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 47.4% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -9.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Getafe
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2026-03-08T15:15:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-2 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-12-21T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 4-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2025-02-23T17:30:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2024-02-04T17:30:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2023-10-21T14:15:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2023-05-24T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-1 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2023-01-28T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-0 Getafe (La Liga)
- 2022-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-0 Getafe (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.