Estadio de La Cartuja · Referee C. Muniz · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Real Betis vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.87 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Betis win
58.9% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Betis home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Osasuna away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.6%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 51.7% vs market 45.8%, edge +5.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.8% | 51.7% | 1.93 | +5.9 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 58.6% | 58.9% | 1.70 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.30 | 40.9% | 41.1% | 2.43 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 23.0% | 23.0% | 4.35 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.15 | 81.9% | 81.9% | 1.22 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.2% | 77.0% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 5.00 | 18.4% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 54.2% | 48.3% | 2.07 | -5.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Osasuna
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Alaves · 2-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-09-28T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-05-11T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2024-10-19T14:15:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2024-05-05T12:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-10-29T13:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-04-22T12:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-3 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-01-18T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-2 Osasuna (Copa del Rey)
- 2022-08-26T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2022-04-03T14:15:00.000Z · Real Betis 4-1 Osasuna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 58.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.