Estadio de la Cartuja · Referee Isidro Diaz de Mera Escuderos, Spain · Analysis updated 20:38 UTC
Real Betis vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.12 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.16 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Betis win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Betis home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sociedad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Real Betis
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)
Real Sociedad
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 1-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 2-2 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2025-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 3-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2025-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 3-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2024-12-01T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-2 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-2 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2023-12-17T15:15:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2023-08-05T23:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-1 Real Sociedad (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-04-25T20:00:00.000Z · Real Betis 0-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.