Real Cartagena vs Real Santander Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Real Cartagena and 0.90 for Real Santander, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Real Cartagena the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Real Cartagena win

58.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.80 – 0.90

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Cartagena home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Santander away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Cartagena to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 23% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Real Cartagena and 0.90 for Real Santander, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Real Cartagena win59%

Draw23%

Real Santander win19%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–012.1%
1–110.9%
2–010.9%
2–19.8%
0–06.7%

Recent form

Real Cartagena

2026-10-19T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Patriotas · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-08T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T01:20:00.000Z · H vs Popayan · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-29T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Magdalena · 1-1 (D)

Real Santander

2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Orsomarso · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Palmira · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Envigado	37	16	13	8	16	61
2	Internacional Palmira	35	17	10	8	11	61
3	Quindio	35	17	10	8	10	61
4	Real Cartagena	37	16	12	9	17	60
5	Union Magdalena	35	16	10	9	15	58
6	Tigres FC	35	12	12	11	6	48
7	Ind. Yumbo	29	12	11	6	11	47
8	Bogota FC	35	10	13	12	-6	43
9	Barranquilla	35	10	9	16	-4	39
10	Real Cundinamarca	29	9	11	9	3	38
11	Patriotas	29	9	8	12	-8	35
12	Popayan	29	7	10	12	-6	31
13	Orsomarso	29	7	10	12	-8	31
14	Depor FC	29	6	9	14	-15	27
15	Real Santander	29	5	11	13	-17	26
16	Leones FC	29	5	9	15	-25	24
1	Internacional Palmira	15	12	2	1	16	38
2	Union Magdalena	15	10	2	3	12	32
3	Quindio	15	9	4	2	10	31
4	Envigado	15	9	2	4	10	29
5	Real Cartagena	15	7	5	3	8	26
6	Bogota FC	15	6	5	4	2	23
7	Barranquilla	15	6	2	7	1	20
8	Tigres FC	15	5	5	5	1	20
9	Ind. Yumbo	15	4	7	4	-1	19
10	Orsomarso	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Patriotas	15	4	5	6	-4	17
12	Popayan	15	2	7	6	-5	13
13	Real Cundinamarca	15	2	7	6	-5	13
14	Leones FC	15	2	4	9	-16	10
15	Depor FC	15	1	6	8	-11	9
16	Real Santander	15	1	4	10	-14	7
1	Envigado	6	3	2	1	3	11
1	Real Cartagena	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Quindio	6	3	1	2	1	10
2	Union Magdalena	6	2	3	1	4	9
3	Internacional Palmira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Barranquilla	6	1	3	2	-1	6
4	Tigres FC	6	1	1	4	-4	4
4	Bogota FC	6	0	3	3	-5	3
1	Ind. Yumbo	14	8	4	2	12	28
2	Real Cundinamarca	14	7	4	3	8	25
3	Tigres FC	14	6	6	2	9	24
4	Real Cartagena	14	5	5	4	8	20
5	Quindio	14	5	5	4	-1	20
6	Real Santander	14	4	7	3	-3	19
7	Popayan	14	5	3	6	-1	18
8	Patriotas	14	5	3	6	-4	18
9	Depor FC	14	5	3	6	-4	18
10	Envigado	14	3	8	3	2	17
11	Union Magdalena	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Bogota FC	14	4	5	5	-3	17
13	Internacional Palmira	14	4	4	6	-5	16
14	Orsomarso	14	3	5	6	-4	14
15	Leones FC	14	3	5	6	-9	14
16	Barranquilla	14	3	4	7	-4	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Cartagena win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.