Estadio Municipal de Mosquera · Analysis updated 08:52 UTC
Real Cundinamarca vs Patriotas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Real Cundinamarca and 1.23 for Patriotas, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Real Cundinamarca the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Cundinamarca home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Patriotas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Cundinamarca to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 27% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Real Cundinamarca and 1.23 for Patriotas, a combined 2.53 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Real Cundinamarca
- 2026-10-02T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Depor FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Barranquilla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-21T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Quindio · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional de Bogota · 1-2 (L)
Patriotas
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Popayan · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-18T23:05:00.000Z · H vs Union Magdalena · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Quindio · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Barranquilla · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T01:15:00.000Z · H vs Tigres FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera B table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.