· Analysis updated 15:14 UTC
Real Espana vs Atlético Choloma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.59 expected goals for Real Espana and 0.79 for Atlético Choloma, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Real Espana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Espana win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.59 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Espana home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Espana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 25% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.59 goals for Real Espana and 0.79 for Atlético Choloma, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 44%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.7%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Real Espana
- 2026-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Platense FC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrella Roja · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Motagua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Olancho · 1-1 (D)
Atlético Choloma
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Atlético Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Olancho | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Lobos Upnfm | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Génesis | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Atletico Independiente | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Platense FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Espana win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.