· Analysis updated 04:11 UTC
Real Espana vs CD Marathon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.32 expected goals for Real Espana and 1.04 for CD Marathon, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Real Espana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.5% probability
Expected goals
1.32 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Espana home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Marathon away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Espana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 28% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.32 goals for Real Espana and 1.04 for CD Marathon, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–19.8%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–18.6%
Recent form
Real Espana
- 2026-08-30T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Génesis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 3-0 (W)
CD Marathon
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Lobos Upnfm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Juticalpa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Olimpia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Atlético Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Olancho | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Lobos Upnfm | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Génesis | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Atletico Independiente | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Platense FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.