Estadio Independencia · Analysis updated 13:04 UTC
Real Estelí vs Xilotepelt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for Real Estelí and 0.70 for Xilotepelt, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Real Estelí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Estelí win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.68 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Estelí home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Estelí to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.68 goals for Real Estelí and 0.70 for Xilotepelt, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 43% and both teams to score at 41%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 2–013.0%
- 1–110.9%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–19.2%
Recent form
Real Estelí
- 2026-10-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Jalapa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Matagalpa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z · A vs UNAN Managua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-1 (D)
Xilotepelt
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Nicaragua table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 2 | Real Estelí | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | H&H Export | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Matagalpa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Jalapa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | Diriangén | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 7 | Rancho Santana | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 8 | Xilotepelt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Estelí win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.