· Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Real Giulianova vs Atletico Ascoli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Real Giulianova and 1.22 for Atletico Ascoli, a combined total of 2.56. That distribution gives Real Giulianova the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Giulianova home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Ascoli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Giulianova to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Real Giulianova and 1.22 for Atletico Ascoli, a combined 2.56 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Real Giulianova
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pietralunga · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Foligno Calcio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ancona · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Santegidiese · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Ascoli · 4-2 (W)
Atletico Ascoli
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vigor Senigallia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fossombrone · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Giulianova · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Trestina · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs L'Aquila · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone F table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L'Aquila | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 23 |
| 2 | Teramo | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Ancona | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 4 | Foligno Calcio | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Vigor Senigallia | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Notaresco | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Real Giulianova | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 10 | Montecchio Gallo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 12 | Termoli Calcio | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Recanatese | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 14 | Santegidiese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Pietralunga | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Maceratese | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Sporting Trestina | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Angelana | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.