Real Jaén vs Atlético Baleares Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Real Jaén and 1.50 for Atlético Baleares, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Atlético Baleares the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Atlético Baleares win

55.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.75 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Jaén home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Baleares away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Baleares to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 19% / 26% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Real Jaén and 1.50 for Atlético Baleares, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Real Jaén win19%

Draw26%

Atlético Baleares win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

81%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.8%
0–211.9%
1–111.9%
0–010.5%
1–28.9%

Recent form

Real Jaén

2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)

Atlético Baleares

2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcoyano · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Lorca Deportiva · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Poblense · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Cieza · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-31T17:00:00.000Z · Real Jaén 2-1 Atlético Baleares (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)
2026-05-24T17:00:00.000Z · Real Jaén 2-1 Atlético Baleares (Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs)

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Atlético Baleares win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.