· Analysis updated 23:28 UTC
Real Jaén vs Cordoba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Real Jaén and 1.08 for Cordoba, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Cordoba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Jaén home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cordoba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cordoba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 33% / 30% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Real Jaén and 1.08 for Cordoba, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.5%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–012.6%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–27.3%
Recent form
Real Jaén
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)
Cordoba
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Eldense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Valladolid · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.