Real Jaén vs Deportivo Alavés II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Real Jaén and 0.92 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined total of 2.29. That distribution gives Real Jaén the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Real Jaén win

47.2% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.37 – 0.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Jaén home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Alavés II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Jaén to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 28% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Real Jaén and 0.92 for Deportivo Alavés II, a combined 2.29 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Real Jaén win47%

Draw28%

Deportivo Alavés II win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

53%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals67%

Over 2.5 goals40%

Over 3.5 goals20%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

1–013.9%
1–112.8%
0–010.1%
2–09.5%
0–19.3%

Recent form

Real Jaén

2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ibiza · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Teruel · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Huesca · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Europa Fc · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordoba · 1-2 (L)

Deportivo Alavés II

2026-10-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gernika · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Portugalete · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Arosa · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Oviedo II · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	CD Coria	4	3	1	0	5	10
2	UD Logroñés	4	3	1	0	4	10
3	UD Ourense	4	3	1	0	4	10
4	Real Jaén	4	3	0	1	2	9
5	Águilas	4	2	2	0	2	8
6	Poblense	4	2	2	0	2	8
7	SD Logroñés	2	2	0	0	2	6
8	Real Oviedo II	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	SS Reyes	4	1	2	1	1	5
10	Estepona	2	1	1	0	2	4
11	Atlético Baleares	4	1	1	2	1	4
12	Deportivo Alavés II	2	1	0	1	0	3
13	Xerez	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Conquense	4	0	2	2	-3	2
15	Reddis	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Deportiva Minera	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Real Madrid III	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Alcoyano	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Coruxo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Castellón II	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Utebo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
22	Numancia	2	0	0	2	-2	0
23	Tudelano	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Getafe II	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Jaén win, at 47.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.