· Analysis updated 14:59 UTC
Real Madrid II vs Real Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Real Madrid II and 1.21 for Real Murcia, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Real Madrid II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Murcia away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 27% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Real Madrid II and 1.21 for Real Murcia, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 1–010.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 2–18.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Real Madrid II
- 2026-10-02T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Madrid II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcorcon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sant Andreu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Águilas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventud Torremolinos · 2-0 (W)
Real Murcia
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zaragoza | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Villarreal II | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Alcorcon | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | Real Murcia | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Cartagena | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Real Jaén | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Hércules | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Antequera | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Ibiza | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Huesca | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | Real Madrid II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Sant Andreu | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Gimnastic | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Algeciras | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Águilas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Rayo Majadahonda | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 18 | Europa Fc | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 19 | Teruel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 2 |
| 20 | Juventud Torremolinos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.