Ciudad Real Madrid Campo 3 · Analysis updated 07:13 UTC
Real Madrid III vs Colonia Moscardó Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.78 expected goals for Real Madrid III and 1.03 for Colonia Moscardó, a combined total of 1.81. That distribution gives Colonia Moscardó the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
72.8% probability
Expected goals
0.78 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid III home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Colonia Moscardó away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Colonia Moscardó to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 27% / 32% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.78 goals for Real Madrid III and 1.03 for Colonia Moscardó, a combined 1.81 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–116.8%
- 0–016.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 1–012.8%
- 0–28.6%
Recent form
Real Madrid III
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Conquense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RSD Alcalá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)
Colonia Moscardó
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Intercity · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | CF Talavera | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 14 |
| 5 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Salamanca UDS | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Guadalajara | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 72.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.