· Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Real Madrid III vs Guadalajara Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Real Madrid III and 1.14 for Guadalajara, a combined total of 2.02. That distribution gives Guadalajara the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid III home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Guadalajara away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guadalajara to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 28% / 30% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Real Madrid III and 1.14 for Guadalajara, a combined 2.02 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–28.5%
Recent form
Real Madrid III
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Talavera · 0-0 (D)
Guadalajara
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid III · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Segoviana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Numancia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 2 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Conquense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Salamanca UDS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | CF Talavera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | SS Reyes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Guadalajara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Navalcarnero | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Tordesillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Paso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.