· Analysis updated 14:32 UTC
Real Madrid III vs Real Valladolid II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Real Madrid III and 1.15 for Real Valladolid II, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Real Valladolid II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Real Valladolid II win
48.7% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid III home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Valladolid II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 20% / 32% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.62 goals for Real Madrid III and 1.15 for Real Valladolid II, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 26% and both teams to score at 32%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.6%
- 0–017.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–010.5%
Recent form
Real Madrid III
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Paso · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs A Madrid III · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs CF Talavera · 0-0 (D)
Real Valladolid II
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A Madrid III | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 2 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Conquense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Numancia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Salamanca UDS | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | CF Talavera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | SS Reyes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 9 | Guadalajara | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Navalcarnero | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 11 | RSD Alcalá | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 | Real Ávila | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Albacete II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -12 | 6 |
| 14 | Atlético Tordesillas | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Atlético Paso | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Getafe II | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Valladolid II win, at 48.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.