· Analysis updated 11:55 UTC
Real Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.30 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Real Madrid win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
2.23 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.5%
- 2–07.3%
- 3–17.0%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Roma · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2018-01-21T15:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 7-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-08-20T20:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 3-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-04-26T19:30:00.000Z · Real Madrid 6-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-12-10T19:45:00.000Z · Real Madrid 3-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-05-14T15:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-01-09T19:30:00.000Z · Real Madrid 5-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2015-02-14T17:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2014-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 8-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2013-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Madrid win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.