Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Referee M. Busquets · Analysis updated 21:49 UTC
Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.61 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.09 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Madrid win
69.8% probability
Expected goals
2.61 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Sociedad away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 2–08.4%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.3%
- 1–17.1%
Recent form
Real Madrid
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-1 (W)
Real Sociedad
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-26T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2026-02-14T20:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2025-09-13T14:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2025-05-24T14:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2025-04-01T19:30:00.000Z · Real Madrid 4-4 Real Sociedad (Copa del Rey)
- 2025-02-26T20:30:00.000Z · Real Madrid 1-0 Real Sociedad (Copa del Rey)
- 2024-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2024-04-26T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 1-0 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2023-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 2023-05-02T20:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 0-2 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Madrid win, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.