Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Referee I. Diaz · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.52 expected goals for Real Madrid and 1.03 for Villarreal, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Real Madrid the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Madrid win
69.7% probability
Expected goals
2.52 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Madrid home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villarreal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 3–07.7%
- 1–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.45 (model 41.0% vs market 38.0%, edge +3.0 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.45 | 38.0% | 41.0% | 2.44 | +3.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 3.25 | 29.2% | 30.3% | 3.30 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 7.00 | 13.3% | 13.5% | 7.41 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 83.1% | 83.2% | 1.20 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.33 | 69.8% | 69.7% | 1.43 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 5.50 | 16.9% | 16.8% | 5.95 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 87.7% | 86.5% | 1.16 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 62.0% | 59.0% | 1.69 | -3.0 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Real Madrid
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-1 (W)
Villarreal
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Madrid · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Malaga · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-24T20:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2025-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2025-03-15T17:30:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2024-10-05T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 4-4 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2023-12-17T20:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 4-1 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2023-04-08T19:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 2-3 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2023-01-19T20:00:00.000Z · Real Madrid 3-2 Villarreal (Copa del Rey)
- 2023-01-07T15:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 1-2 Villarreal (La Liga)
- 2022-02-12T15:15:00.000Z · Real Madrid 0-0 Villarreal (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Madrid win, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.