Real Madrid W vs Valencia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Real Madrid W and 1.19 for Valencia W, a combined total of 3.82. That distribution gives Real Madrid W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Real Madrid W win

68.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.63 – 1.19

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Madrid W home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valencia W away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Madrid W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Real Madrid W and 1.19 for Valencia W, a combined 3.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Real Madrid W win68%

Draw17%

Valencia W win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

2–19.0%
3–17.9%
2–07.5%
1–16.9%
3–06.6%

Recent form

Real Madrid W

2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Barcelona W · 0-7 (L)
2026-10-01T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad W · 5-3 (W)
2026-09-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Valencia W · 3-1 (W)

Valencia W

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés W · 0-2 (L)
2025-05-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 2-2 (D)
2025-05-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levante Badalona W · 1-1 (D)
2025-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar W · 2-0 (W)
2025-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad W · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Primera División Femenina table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	6	6	0	0	26	18
2	Madrid CFF W	6	4	1	1	2	13
3	Real Madrid W	6	4	1	1	0	13
4	Eibar W	6	3	2	1	0	11
5	Athletic Club W	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Atletico Madrid W	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Espanyol W	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	FC Levante Badalona W	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Granad. Tenerife W	6	2	2	2	-5	8
10	Sevilla W	6	2	1	3	-3	7
11	Granada	6	2	1	3	-4	7
12	Edf Logrono W	6	2	0	4	-2	6
13	Deportivo Alavés W	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Deportivo de La Coruña W	6	1	2	3	-1	5
15	Real Sociedad W	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Valencia W	6	0	0	6	-9	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Madrid W win, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.