Real Murcia II vs Mazarrón FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Real Murcia II and 1.48 for Mazarrón FC, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives Mazarrón FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Murcia II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mazarrón FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mazarrón FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 37% / 25% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Real Murcia II and 1.48 for Mazarrón FC, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Real Murcia II win37%

Draw25%

Mazarrón FC win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–28.5%
2–18.3%
0–17.9%
1–07.8%

Recent form

Real Murcia II

2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 1-2 (L)

Mazarrón FC

2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Molinense · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Bala Azul · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cotillas CD · 1-2 (L)
2026-05-24T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Murcia II · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Santomera	6	5	1	0	8	16
2	San Javier	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Unión Molinense	6	3	2	1	5	11
4	Santa Cruz	6	2	3	1	1	9
5	Alcantarilla	6	2	3	1	0	9
6	UCAM Murcia II	6	2	2	2	6	8
7	Águilas II	6	1	5	0	2	8
8	Atlético Pulpileño	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Bala Azul	6	2	2	2	0	8
10	Olímpico Totana	6	2	2	2	0	8
11	Los Garres	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Cartagena LU II	6	2	2	2	-1	8
13	SFC Minerva	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Cotillas CD	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Balsicas Atlético	6	2	0	4	-5	6
16	Bullas Deportivo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Algar	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Mazarrón FC	6	0	1	5	-8	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.