· Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Real Murcia II vs Ucam Murcia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Real Murcia II and 2.35 for Ucam Murcia, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Ucam Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ucam Murcia win
68.5% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 2.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Murcia II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ucam Murcia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ucam Murcia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 14% / 18% / 69% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Real Murcia II and 2.35 for Ucam Murcia, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
31%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–210.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.7%
- 1–18.2%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Real Murcia II
- 2026-10-04T09:45:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mallorca II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Nucía · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Orihuela · 1-2 (L)
Ucam Murcia
- 2026-10-03T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Elche II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Intercity · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Baleares · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Castellonense · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ucam Murcia | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Castellón II | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | La Nucía | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Cieza | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Deportiva Minera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Orihuela | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 10 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Intercity | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Elche II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Baleares | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Poblense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Mallorca II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 16 | Peña Deportiva | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Valencia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ucam Murcia win, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.