Real Murcia vs Gimnastic Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Real Murcia and 1.25 for Gimnastic, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Real Murcia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Real Murcia win

53.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.95 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Murcia home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Gimnastic away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 6 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Real Murcia win54%

Draw22%

Gimnastic win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

1–19.9%
2–19.7%
1–07.9%
2–07.7%
3–16.3%

Recent form

Real Murcia

2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnastic · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Navalcarnero · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa Fc · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Orihuela · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Madrid II · 0-4 (L)

Gimnastic

2026-09-26T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Sant Andreu · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcon · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Algeciras · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs FC Cartagena · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-30T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zaragoza · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-04-11T16:30:00.000Z · Real Murcia 1-2 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2025-11-08T20:00:00.000Z · Real Murcia 3-2 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2025-06-07T18:30:00.000Z · Real Murcia 0-1 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Play Offs)
2025-05-31T16:30:00.000Z · Real Murcia 1-1 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Play Offs)
2023-02-11T18:00:00.000Z · Real Murcia 2-0 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)
2022-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · Real Murcia 2-3 Gimnastic (Primera División RFEF - Group 2)

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Zaragoza	6	5	0	1	6	15
2	Villarreal II	6	4	1	1	6	13
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	9	12
4	Real Murcia	6	4	0	2	3	12
5	FC Cartagena	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Real Jaén	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Hércules	6	3	1	2	0	10
8	Antequera	6	2	3	1	2	9
9	Ibiza	6	3	0	3	0	9
10	Huesca	6	2	3	1	0	9
11	Atlético Madrid II	6	2	2	2	3	8
12	Real Madrid II	6	2	2	2	1	8
13	Sant Andreu	6	2	2	2	0	8
14	Gimnastic	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Algeciras	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Águilas	6	1	2	3	-5	5
17	Rayo Majadahonda	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Europa Fc	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Teruel	6	0	2	4	-10	2
20	Juventud Torremolinos	6	0	1	5	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Murcia win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.