· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Real Noroeste vs Desportiva ES Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Real Noroeste and 1.43 for Desportiva ES, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Desportiva ES the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Desportiva ES win
48.0% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Noroeste home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Desportiva ES away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Desportiva ES to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 25% / 27% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Real Noroeste and 1.43 for Desportiva ES, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.3%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–29.4%
- 0–09.3%
- 1–29.0%
Recent form
Real Noroeste
- 2026-06-14T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Democrata GV · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Vitória ES · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Tombense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-16T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Branco ES · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Porto BA · 2-1 (W)
Desportiva ES
- 2026-03-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Sport Recife · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-27T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Vilavelhense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-22T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Vilavelhense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-17T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-02-12T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Forte FC · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Capixaba table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitória ES | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Serra Talhada | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Vilavelhense | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 4 | Rio Branco ES | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Porto Vitória | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Desportiva ES | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 7 | Real Noroeste | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 8 | Forte FC | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Capixaba SC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | Rio Branco-VN | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Desportiva ES win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.