· Referee R. Mamani · Analysis updated 22:47 UTC
Real Oruro vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Real Oruro and 2.00 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Real Oruro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Oruro win
46.2% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Oruro home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 1–26.2%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Real Oruro
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Potosí · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-27T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-2 (L)
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Blooming · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-01T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente Petrolero · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oruro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Bolívar · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 1-4 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-07-11T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 3-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Primera División)
- 2026-02-07T21:15:00.000Z · Real Oruro 2-3 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2026-02-01T23:30:00.000Z · Real Oruro 1-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2025-11-08T21:30:00.000Z · Real Oruro 2-2 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-11-01T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 1-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Primera División)
- 2025-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 4-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2025-05-25T21:15:00.000Z · Real Oruro 0-0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Primera División)
- 2023-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 2-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Nacional B)
- 2023-08-27T19:00:00.000Z · Real Oruro 0-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ (Nacional B)
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Always Ready | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Oruro win, at 46.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.