Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere · Analysis updated 14:45 UTC
Real Oviedo II vs CD Coria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Real Oviedo II and 1.14 for CD Coria, a combined total of 1.69. That distribution gives CD Coria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CD Coria win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Oviedo II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
CD Coria away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Coria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 18% / 32% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.55 goals for Real Oviedo II and 1.14 for CD Coria, a combined 1.69 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–121.0%
- 0–018.5%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.6%
- 1–010.2%
Recent form
Real Oviedo II
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Compostela · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 0-2 (L)
CD Coria
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Extremadura 1924 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cultural Leonesa · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Coria | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | UD Ourense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Real Jaén | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Águilas | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Poblense | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | SD Logroñés | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo II | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | SS Reyes | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Estepona | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Atlético Baleares | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | Xerez | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Conquense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 15 | Reddis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Deportiva Minera | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Madrid III | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Alcoyano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Coruxo | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 20 | Castellón II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 21 | Utebo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 22 | Numancia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 23 | Tudelano | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 24 | Getafe II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Coria win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.