Real Oviedo II vs Langreo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for Real Oviedo II and 1.13 for Langreo, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Real Oviedo II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.13 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Oviedo II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Langreo away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Real Oviedo II win36%

Draw29%

Langreo win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–113.3%
0–111.9%
1–011.9%
0–010.5%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Real Oviedo II

2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Alavés II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestao River · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Eibar II · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-25T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Avilés · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 0-1 (L)

Langreo

2026-08-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marino de Luanco · 1-6 (L)
2026-08-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Llanes · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Oviedo II · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Numancia · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 3-2 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2025-11-09T16:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 2-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 1-1 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2023-09-23T16:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 0-0 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2023-03-04T17:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 0-3 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2022-10-16T14:15:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 1-1 Langreo (Segunda División RFEF - Group 1)
2021-01-17T15:30:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 2-2 Langreo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2020-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 0-1 Langreo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2020-01-19T11:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 0-2 Langreo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
2019-09-01T10:00:00.000Z · Real Oviedo II 2-1 Langreo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bergantiños	6	4	2	0	7	14
2	Eibar II	6	4	1	1	7	13
3	Deportivo Alavés II	6	4	1	1	6	13
4	Sestao River	6	4	1	1	4	13
5	Portugalete	6	3	1	2	0	10
6	Real Oviedo II	6	3	1	2	-1	10
7	Ourense CF	6	3	1	2	-2	10
8	Gernika	6	2	3	1	7	9
9	Basconia	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	Amorebieta	6	2	1	3	0	7
11	Compostela	6	2	1	3	-2	7
12	Llanera	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Atlético Astorga	6	2	0	4	2	6
14	Marino de Luanco	6	2	0	4	-4	6
15	Coruxo	6	1	2	3	-2	5
16	Gimnástica Torrelavega	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Arosa	6	0	4	2	-7	4
18	Racing Santander II	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.