· Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Real Pharm vs Lisne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.69 expected goals for Real Pharm and 1.14 for Lisne, a combined total of 1.83. That distribution gives Lisne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 28% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lisne win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
0.69 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Pharm home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lisne away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lisne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 22% / 31% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.69 goals for Real Pharm and 1.14 for Lisne, a combined 1.83 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.3%
- 0–016.0%
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–210.4%
Recent form
Real Pharm
- 2026-05-22T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kulykiv · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bukovyna 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Uzhhorod · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lisne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Vilkhivtsi · 1-5 (L)
Lisne
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skala 1911 Stryi · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyva Vinnytsya · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyva Ternopil II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Polissya II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kulykiv · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Real Pharm 0-0 Lisne (Druha Liga)
- 2025-11-01T10:30:00.000Z · Real Pharm 1-3 Lisne (Druha Liga)
- 2025-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · Real Pharm 1-4 Lisne (Druha Liga)
Druha Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bratslav Vinnytsia | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 1 | Karbon Cherkasy | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Dnister Zalishchyky | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Lozova | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 3 | Nyva Vinnytsya | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 20 |
| 3 | Rebel | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | Vilkhivtsi | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 4 | SC Poltava 2 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 13 |
| 5 | Trostianets | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Nyva Ternopil II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 12 |
| 6 | Atlet | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Skala 1911 Stryi | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | Oleksandria II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Dinaz Vyshhorod | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
| 8 | Metalurh Zaporizhya | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Ruh Lviv | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 5 |
| 9 | Penuel | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lisne win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 28%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.