· Referee C. Condori · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Real Potosí vs Nacional Potosí Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Real Potosí and 2.05 for Nacional Potosí, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Nacional Potosí the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Nacional Potosí win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 2.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Potosí home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional Potosí away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.8%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Real Potosí
- 2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs The Strongest · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Aurora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-29T22:00:00.000Z · H vs ABB · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Antonio Bulo Bulo · 0-3 (L)
Nacional Potosí
- 2026-10-03T21:15:00.000Z · H vs Real Oruro · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Tomayapo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Always Ready · 9-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Potosí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Potosí · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-22T23:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 1-0 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 2-2 Nacional Potosí (Copa de la División Profesional)
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 1-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2026-02-08T21:15:00.000Z · Real Potosí 1-0 Nacional Potosí (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2026-02-01T21:15:00.000Z · Real Potosí 1-0 Nacional Potosí (Torneo Amistoso de Verano)
- 2021-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 2-4 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2021-05-02T19:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 1-2 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2020-12-29T19:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 2-3 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2020-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 0-4 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
- 2019-12-25T20:00:00.000Z · Real Potosí 2-1 Nacional Potosí (Primera División)
Copa de la División Profesional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Petrolero | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | Bolívar | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 3 | Aurora | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 18 |
| 4 | Nacional Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 17 |
| 5 | Real Potosí | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Oriente Petrolero | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | The Strongest | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Guabirá | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 9 | Always Ready | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 10 | San Antonio Bulo Bulo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Real Tomayapo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 10 |
| 12 | Universitario de Vinto | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 13 | Real Oruro | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | ABB | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Gualberto Villarroel SJ | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 | Blooming | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Nacional Potosí win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.