· Analysis updated 04:42 UTC
Real Refineros vs Calor de San Pedro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for Real Refineros and 1.92 for Calor de San Pedro, a combined total of 4.48. That distribution gives Real Refineros the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Refineros win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Refineros home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Calor de San Pedro away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Refineros to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 19% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.56 goals for Real Refineros and 1.92 for Calor de San Pedro, a combined 4.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.1%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.6%
Recent form
Real Refineros
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Guerreros del Pacifico · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Halcones Negros · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Dragones de Oaxaca · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciervos · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Delfines Coatzacoalcos · 2-2 (D)
Calor de San Pedro
- 2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Acambaro · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Halcones Negros · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Ciervos · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Refineros · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Artesanos Metepec · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 20 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Refineros win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.