Real Sociedad III vs Durango Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Real Sociedad III and 0.68 for Durango, a combined total of 2.08. That distribution gives Real Sociedad III the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Real Sociedad III win

54.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 0.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Durango away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Sociedad III to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 28% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Real Sociedad III and 0.68 for Durango, a combined 2.08 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 34% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad III win55%

Draw28%

Durango win18%

Double chance 1X

82%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals61%

Over 2.5 goals34%

Over 3.5 goals16%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.6%
0–012.6%
2–012.3%
1–111.9%
0–18.5%

Recent form

Real Sociedad III

Durango

2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Derio · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Touring · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Beasain · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Aretxabaleta · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T09:15:00.000Z · A vs Santurtzi · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad III 4-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2026-01-03T16:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad III 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)
2019-11-02T17:30:00.000Z · Real Sociedad III 1-0 Durango (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Aurrerá Vitoria	6	4	1	1	2	13
2	Leioa	6	3	3	0	10	12
3	Derio	6	3	3	0	5	12
4	Real Sociedad III	6	3	2	1	3	11
5	Aretxabaleta	6	3	2	1	3	11
6	Deportivo Alavés III	6	3	1	2	7	10
7	Pasaia KE	6	3	1	2	-1	10
8	San Ignacio	6	2	2	2	2	8
9	Touring	6	2	2	2	1	8
10	Sodupe	6	2	2	2	-4	8
11	Durango	6	1	4	1	0	7
12	Beasain	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Lagun Onak	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Erandio	6	2	0	4	-2	6
15	Santurtzi	6	2	0	4	-4	6
16	Eibar III	6	1	2	3	-1	5
17	R. Union B	6	1	2	3	-5	5
18	Amurrio Club	6	0	1	5	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Sociedad III win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.