Anoeta Stadium · Referee Pawel Raczkowski · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.42 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives Bournemouth the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Sociedad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bournemouth away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bournemouth to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.42 for Bournemouth, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.5%
- 1–08.4%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Real Sociedad
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)
Bournemouth
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelsea · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lincoln · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth (UEFA Europa League)
- 2025-08-09T10:15:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-1 Bournemouth (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 2-1 Bournemouth (Friendlies Clubs)
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.