Anoeta · Referee M. Sesma · Analysis updated 19:49 UTC
Real Sociedad vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 0.83 for Deportivo La Coruna, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Real Sociedad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Sociedad win
56.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.83
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Sociedad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo La Coruna away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.0%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 54.8% vs market 46.1%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 46.1% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +8.7 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 55.8% | 56.1% | 1.78 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 80.6% | 80.9% | 1.24 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.8% | 24.8% | 4.03 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.15 | 43.9% | 43.9% | 2.28 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 4.80 | 19.4% | 19.1% | 5.24 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.5% | 75.2% | 1.33 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.9% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Real Sociedad
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)
Deportivo La Coruna
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Real Sociedad · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Porto · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Penafiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sevilla · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2018-02-02T20:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 5-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-09-10T10:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 4-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2017-04-23T10:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-12-05T19:45:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-5 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2016-01-16T21:05:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2015-08-22T16:30:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2015-04-12T17:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 2-2 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2014-11-22T21:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2013-06-01T19:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-0 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
- 2013-01-13T16:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 24 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 18 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 19 | Valencia | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Sociedad win, at 56.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.