Real Sociedad vs Real Betis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.74 for Real Betis, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Real Betis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Real Betis win

45.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Sociedad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Betis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad win31%

Draw23%

Real Betis win45%

Double chance 1X

55%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.5%
1–29.1%
2–17.4%
0–17.4%
2–26.5%

Recent form

Real Sociedad

2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)

Real Betis

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-21T19:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
2026-05-09T19:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 2-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
2025-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-3 Real Betis (La Liga)
2025-02-16T20:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-3 Real Betis (La Liga)
2024-12-01T20:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 2-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
2024-05-19T17:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 2-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
2023-12-17T15:15:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
2023-08-05T23:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 1-0 Real Betis (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-04-25T20:00:00.000Z · Real Sociedad 0-0 Real Betis (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Real Betis win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.