Anoeta · Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Real Sociedad vs Torreense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Real Sociedad and 1.35 for Torreense, a combined total of 2.84. That distribution gives Real Sociedad the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.5% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Sociedad home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torreense away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Sociedad to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 25% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Real Sociedad and 1.35 for Torreense, a combined 2.84 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Real Sociedad
- 2026-10-11T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo La Coruna · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Athletic Club · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Valencia · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Bournemouth · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Madrid · 0-3 (L)
Torreense
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Leixoes · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Benfica B · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lusitânia Lourosa · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Bournemouth | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Ferencvarosi TC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Sparta Praha | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Union St. Gilloise | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 16 | AC Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 3 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta Vigo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 31 | Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.