Real Sociedad W vs Chelsea W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Real Sociedad W and 1.79 for Chelsea W, a combined total of 2.81. That distribution gives Chelsea W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Chelsea W win

55.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.02 – 1.79

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Real Sociedad W home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chelsea W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chelsea W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Real Sociedad W and 1.79 for Chelsea W, a combined 2.81 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Real Sociedad W win21%

Draw23%

Chelsea W win56%

Double chance 1X

44%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.0%
0–110.8%
1–29.8%
0–29.7%
1–06.1%

Recent form

Real Sociedad W

2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid W · 3-5 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hearts W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Levante Badalona W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Granad. Tenerife W · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Granada · 2-3 (L)

Chelsea W

2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-2 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyon W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-23T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria Wien W · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Champions League Women table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona W	2	2	0	0	9	6
2	Lyon W	2	1	1	0	8	4
3	Paris Saint Germain W	2	1	1	0	5	4
4	Bayern Munich W	2	1	1	0	3	4
5	Arsenal W	2	1	1	0	1	4
6	Inter Milano W	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Chelsea W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Køge W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Juventus W	2	1	0	1	2	3
10	SL Benfica W	2	1	0	1	-2	3
11	Manchester City W	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Real Madrid W	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Austria Wien W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Paris FC W	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	OH Leuven W	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Roma W	2	0	1	1	-6	1
17	Häcken W	2	0	0	2	-4	0
18	Servette Chênois W	2	0	0	2	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Chelsea W win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.