· Analysis updated 20:01 UTC
Real Valladolid II vs Calvo Sotelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for Real Valladolid II and 0.99 for Calvo Sotelo, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Real Valladolid II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Valladolid II win
51.8% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 0.99
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Real Valladolid II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Calvo Sotelo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Real Valladolid II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 25% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.61 goals for Real Valladolid II and 0.99 for Calvo Sotelo, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 0–07.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.05 (model 49.7% vs market 45.3%, edge +4.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.05 | 45.3% | 49.7% | 2.01 | +4.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.00 | 47.2% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 23.1% | 23.3% | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.0% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.73 | 52.0% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.5% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 77.3% | 76.7% | 1.30 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.7% | 50.3% | 1.99 | -4.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Real Valladolid II
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Albacete II · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Navalcarnero · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Leganés II · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid III · 0-1 (L)
Calvo Sotelo
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs SS Reyes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs RSD Alcalá · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Valladolid II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Tordesillas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Ávila · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conquense | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | SS Reyes | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | A Madrid III | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Real Valladolid II | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Numancia | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Salamanca UDS | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | CF Talavera | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Navalcarnero | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Gimnástica Segoviana | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Atlético Tordesillas | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Atlético Paso | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Albacete II | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -11 | 9 |
| 13 | Guadalajara | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | RSD Alcalá | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 15 | Real Ávila | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 16 | Calvo Sotelo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Getafe II | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | Real Madrid III | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Valladolid II win, at 51.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.